I haven’t blogged for a while simply because politics has become too monochrome, dreary & predictable. With the notable exception of Tim Shipman, there has been little original insider insight other than the echo chamber of Westminster wannabes. How much more can you add to to the bloody obvious? That Jenrick, eyes molten with ambition, saying and doing anything that will get him a paragraph in the Daily Mail is a busted flush. That Starmer’s vision is simply to survive the next week in politics. That Nigel Farage and Reform will eventually be found out. And that’s about it.
I’m fed up with reading gothic headlines of how nothing works in Britain. About hatred. About divide. About intolerance. About the obsession we have with flags. About the nonsense peddled about a two tier justice system. And turning the utterly ghastly Lucy Connolly into a martyr for free speech.
Of course, freedom of speech is in our DNA and that police chiefs have a strong case to answer about forgetting that their job is to protect the public from crime rather than hurt feelings. But have you noticed that many of those who bang on about free speech just want the right to say divisive & deeply unpleasant things? In the seventies we used to moan about the Americanisation of our language. Now we should now be alert to the Americanisation of our politics.
But that is all the obvious stuff. What few people have noticed is how the tectonic plates of politics are beginning to move. I’m not talking about the blind panic that Reform, or rather Farage, has cleverly caused the political classes. That, liked flaired trousers and vaginal deodorant is just a passing fad. The real story is that there is serious talk, not from the usual suspects, that Starmer will not lead Labour into the next election. Kemi Badenoch will be praying that she will be up against him in a few years time. This is her moment. She has him on the ropes. By all accounts she stuffed him at the last PMQs. It takes a while for a leader of the opposition to get the measure of the prime minister. And she has, whilst acquiring the scalps of Rayner and Mandelson on the way. There will be more as it is almost inevitable that Morgan McSweeney will be the next blood sacrifice to try and save Starmer’s stricken premiership.
Badenoch really gets under his skin. What is mystifying is that as a silk he can’t think on his feet. I suspect that is because he is not a jury advocate rather a deliverer of bloodless skeleton arguments. She now has the makings of a speech that can wow the party faithful and give them something to cheer and stomp their feet as opposed to moping in the corners whispering to the press that she is in the last chance saloon and that it’s drinking up time. Oh, and we have the potential car crash of Trump’s visit.
What people who weren’t around politics in the eighties and nineties don’t seem to understand is that that the Mandelson Prince of Darkness narrative is a myth manufactured by himself. Yes, he was a very competent minister. Yes, he helped make Labour electable. But he has always had the knack of seeking out people with the potential of great power. He chose to promote Tony Blair over Gordon Brown. His other flaw was a desire to make himself a fortune as a wheeler dealer, hence his connection with Epstein. I suspect that Mandelson’s support in Epstein’s moment in need is little more than a cynical attempt ingratiate himself with a fallen man who much just get back on his feet. Oh, the potential riches.
Starmer has made a number of serious mistakes with Mandelson. Firstly, appointing him against the advice of the vetting authorities. Secondly, not having a private word with him before his departure coupled with a warm exchange of letters. This is another terrible lapse of judgment. Mandelson has a very thin skin and is well documented for destroying his enemies. And Starmer is now an enemy. It’s going to be bloody.
Now a word about Andy Burnham. He would make an excellent leader of the Labour Party. But will it fly? The last thing that Starmer’s gang want is for him return to the Commons. So expect some negative briefings to appear. A warning shot appears in the Sunday Telegraph, with a minister saying saying that Manchester would miss him.
I have always liked Andy. I have always found him fun and engaging. A few years ago we were against each other at the Cambridge Union. In my speech I said I couldn’t possibly attack him because it would be like strangling the Andrex Puppy. He was still smarting from his defeat by Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership. His reply to me was, “for the last six months I have been beaten up by an old guy with a white beard. Now it’s happened again”.
One last word on Starmer. It appears fairly as certain as anything can be in politics that Brigette Phillipson will beat Lucy Powell for the Deputy Leadership. She is in the Cabinet so technically she should be Deputy Prime Minister. But Lammy was assured that he will remain in post. What a mess.
To be a successful leader you have to have judgment and luck. Starmer has neither. He is just a passenger on a runaway train on a white knuckled ride to nowhere.