If only people realised that most politicians are not masters of mass delusion but pretty adept at self delusion.There are a number of golden rules in politics. Never trust a politician who tells you how many MPs are supporting them. All they want to do is trick potential supporters to join a band wagon that has a wheel about to fall off. Lesson learned Wes? And take what people tell you on the doorstep with a large pinch of salt as sometimes they lie. Beware of posters, they are not a reliable measure of voting intentions. Also distrust social media as it is often just an echo chamber for the deluded cultists.
I have been saying for months that the Reform bubble will burst and it has. Members will be gunning for Farage as his Crypto problem is only going to get worse. Please will someone explain to me why they think it is good tactics to blame that nasty old bigot Lowe (nominative determinism lives!) for Burnham’s crushing victory. And was it really sensible to say that there is documentary evidence to prove that Badenoch and Restore were in cahoots. ‘Detain and Deport’ is not where the Conservatives have ever been or will ever go.
I wonder how long it will be before that self proclaimed devout Reform convert Christian, Danny Kruger, will get squeamish about Reform faking Kemi’s words about white boys. Their tactics are dirty. From the Trump playbook. And it will get worse.
Of the many interesting things about this by election it was the hate filled grudge match between Lowe and Farage that held my attention. It was mutually assured destruction in technicolour. Lowe and his thugs howling racial hatred really do think that they are on a roll. Incredible. Their candidate notched up 6.8% of the vote yet in 2010 the BNP scored 7.4%. Yet social media is awash with Restore supporters convinced that Lowe will be in Number 10 in the near future.
Farage really has to face his Crypto problem head on. It will be messy but he is going to have to answer questions. The optics are terrible. Of course he should have declared it. The rules are very clear. And for heaven’s sake have one narrative. Was it a gift for Brexit? Was it for his security? Was it put under his pillow by the Crypto fairy? Does it look good to receive any money from someone who personally stands to gain from the only coherent but misguided Reform policy that will encourage Crypto investment? It’s A bit of a no brainer.
It would be wise to distance himself from Trump and Putin. Putin is easy, but Trump? He came up with an absolute corker a few years back. “Iran has never won a war but never lost a negotiation”. That will haunt him as his presidency fizzles into an irrelevance.
Reform will be gunning for Farage if he doesn't deal with the herd of elephants in the room. Little Bobby J will be sharpening his claws with Cruella for a takeover. Maybe even Mad Nad might throw her hat in the ring. Farage will destroy them all. In many ways that is his other problem. If you have pissed him off its best you don’t stand next to an open window.
All of this is nothing compared to the horrors that Keir Starmer if suffering; all of his own making. What Burnham has to do is bide his time and give him the opportunity for a dignified exit. Offering him the Foreign Office would be a good start, with the hope that he will turn it down. But if the newspapers are to be believed Starmer has seen the writing on the wall and will be gone by early next week.
There are two winners this week, Burnham and Kemi. Both have given their respective parties hope. The crushing of the SNP in Aberdeen South was remarkable. Coupled with two council gains from Reform in Essex, It shows that determination, guts and a clear strategy is the way to win votes. It would have been so easy for Kemi to hint at a some sort of pact with Reform as so many people who should know better were urging. She is brave and instinctive and unlike Starmer can make decisions and stick to them.
But how should she deal with Burnham? With great care. I have debated and drank with him. He is genuinely a nice guy with a self deprecatory sense of humour and everything that Starmer isn’t and can’t be. I’ll give you an example. When Andy had just finished losing the leadership to Corbyn we were against each other at the despatch box at the Cambridge Union. My opening line was “being unkind to Andy Burnham is like strangling the Andrex puppy”. As quick as a flash he grinned and replied, “for the last few months I’ve been hammered by an old boy with white hair and a beard. It’s happening again”. Funny and effective.
Kemi’s approach is going to have to be different from her weekly demolition and humiliation of Starmer. She has the gift of a sense of humour, so does Andy, so play to it. She is right to to peddle the line that it doesn’t make any difference who takes over as the problems will be the same. This will gain traction as the enormity of Burnham’s problems emerge.
When he enters the Chamber there will be genuine cheers from his own side. But are they his supporters or his gaolers? What deals has he done with the left? When John McDonnell wept with joy on LBC at his victory my alarm bells began to jangle. Is Andy going to be brave and take the tough measures needed to tackle debt, growth, youth unemployment, defence and social care? If he wants show that he means business, cheer the markets and send a warning shot to the left he should appoint that wise old fixer Pat McFadden as Chancellor, ditch Miliband, Steve Reid, Lammy and the awful Hermer. God knows what he will give Rayner and Louise Haigh as rewards, I shudder at the very thought. Jess Phillips should be brought back.
And finally a word about my old friend Karl Turner who is brave in battle and decent in heart. The whip should be restored immediately. I’d put him in charge of Justice as he has put his heart and soul into it ever since he was elected. He has been smeared, briefed against and treated appallingly by the party he loves. This is a wrong that must be righted.