The shocking truth about EU migration is that Farage is hopelessly wrong. And it's all in a government paper.

20 Oct 2014 at 11:08

Over the last few months I have been rather perplexed about the stampede of the main parties towards the general perception that EU migration is undercutting British jobs. There seems to be a popular view that once the people have spoken politicians should listen and have a duty to act. And any real democrat would be believe in this. But what after listening and analysing the evidence politicians come to the conclusion that the people are talking dangerous bollocks? Don’t they have a duty to tell them the truth and do their best to educate them about the realities and assuage their fears? Or do they just cower in front of the pitch forked mob and promise to ‘do something’ about the hordes of Ebolans who are coming over here, taking our jobs and over stretching our health service?

So I thought that I would scour the internet and try and find the truth about the true effects of EU migration on British jobs. To be honest, I thought that this was going to be an Herculian task, grappling with a myriad of contradictory statistics. I was quite wrong. There is a document setting out a statistical analysis which popped up almost immediately. From a right wing think tank? From a left wing think tank? From that fount of all knowledge, the KIPPERS? No. It is a joint paper written by Amanda Rowlatt and Sam Brand. And who the bloody hell are they you might ask. Rowlatt is the Chief Analyst at the Department for Business Innovation and Skills and Brand is the Chief Economist at the Home Office. The paper is called Impacts of Migration on UK native employment: An analytical review of the evidence.
For you searchers after the truth and not the political wind and piss which is filling the sails of HMS Great Britain and is in danger of running us aground I would urge you to read it.

I am sorry, but to be fair I will need to quote great chunks of the Executive summary. It will shock you.

“The purpose of this review, carried out by government analysts, has been to consider comprehensively the evidence in this area and to reconcile the wide ranging conclusions from the economic literature, in order to set out the agreed cross government view. Importantly, it is recognised that the impacts on migration on the Labour market depend on a range of factors that vary over time, and therefore the impact of migration on the Labour market cannot be condensed into a ‘one size fits all’ answer.

…… Overall, our assessment is that there is relatively little evidence that migration has caused statistically significant displacement of UK natives from the Labour market in periods when the economy has been strong. However, in line with some recent studies, there is evidence for some labour market displacement in recent years when the economy is in recession.

…….this suggests that the labour market adjusts to increased net migration when economic conditions are good. But during a recession and when net migration volumes are high as in recent years, it appears that the Labour market adjusts at a slower rate and some short term impacts are observed.

………to date there has been little evidence in the literature of a statistically significant impact from EU migration on native employment outcomes, although significant EU migration is still a relatively recent phenomenon and this does not imply that impacts do not occur in some circumstances.

…….the evidence also suggests that where there has been a displacement effect from a particular cohort of migrants, this dissipates over time, that is, any displacement impacts from one set of new arrivals gradually decline as the labour market adjusts, as predicted by economic theory".

The interesting thing about this report is that it is the policy of the government and was published last March. Yet, I don’t recall any ministers quoting it, let alone trying to explain to the public that their fears that this country is being swamped by EU immigrants under cutting their jobs is just plain wrong.

Of course, there are problems in relation to benefit misuse and other related issues that have to be dealt with. According to Barosso on Marr yesterday Cameron is pushing at an open door.

The trouble is the political agenda appears to be being set by the wilful ignorance of the Faragistas conjuring up a terror which in reality is nothing more than a cyclical problem. Of course politicians must listen to the concerns of the public. And if they are founded on real evidence they are duty bound to act. But if the KIPPERS managed to convince the public that the earth was flat and the moon was made of cheese wouldn’t they be under a duty to advise them that this is the most dangerous nonsense?

I fear that as the election is only 200 days away that anyone who tries to have a fact based debate on EU migration will be regarded as mentally unstable or an Immigration Denier. How desperately sad.

Not for the first time Ken Clarke has got it right. We can’t out KIPPER UKIP. And it is dishonest to try.

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It's about time that Farage was exposed at the cynical Westminster operator that he is

10 Oct 2014 at 12:04

Despite all the hype from the Faragistas, no mould has been broken and nothing much has changed. The Kippers have just officially replaced the Lib Dems as the spittoon for the aggrieved, the nutters the no hopers and thoroughly pissed off from Jaywick. It is scary for the Tories but terrifying for Labour who narrowly missed losing one of their safest seats. Now let’s see what happens in Rochester. This one is very difficult to call. The genteel poverty of the Daily Express reading crumblies were always ripe for Farage and dear old Carswell was regarded as a rather decent oddball. But Reckless has a reputation as being a bit of a shit and hasn’t had his feet under the desk for very long. If I was him I would be very worried about the Sundays as there are a lot of very aggrieved back benchers who will be keen to dig the dirt.

But whatever happens I would be amazed if the kippers win or retain a single seat at the general. The Lib Dems were always regarded as a wasted vote, but UKIP is a positively dangerous one. The mantra that if you spend the night with Farage you’ll end up waking up with Miliband cannot be repeated too often as it is so toxic and true. The awful thing is that Farage really doesn’t care if Labour wreckers trash the economy and throw thousands onto the dole. In fact he rather welcomes it. He wants to destroy the Tories and lead the right. But at what a cost. And he has the nerve to accuse the Westminster ruling elite of cynicism. The man is an utter disgrace. It really is time that the gloves came off and that all sensible parties unite in revealing him as a wolf in a jester’s clothes.

What will be interesting is how Carswell will be received in the Commons next week. Labour would be mad to cheer him as they were hurt more than the Tories. The whips will be interested to watch which Tories pat him on the back and which ones cheer him. I would be amazed if he is not put under 24 hour surveillance. I do feel rather sorry for him though. The matey support system of colleagues will not be there for him any more. And anyone seen within ten feet of him will be suspected of plotting. The poor fellow will find the Commons a very hostile environment. The sharks are circling even now, sniffing for the first sign of blood. It will get very, very dirty. He really has made a terrible mistake on both a personal and political level.

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For the police to hack the Mail on Sunday is a national disgrace and an affront to the freedom of the press

5 Oct 2014 at 10:24

Apart from the appalling news of the savage and senseless murder of a thoroughly decent man and the more encouraging reportage of British Imams speaking with one voice in condemnation, there is a worrying news story which is not being picked up. It is the Mail on Sunday splash that during the investigation of Chris Huhne’s perversion of the course of justice and against the order of a judge the police hacked into a Mail on Sunday telephone. ‘So what?’ Some might say. ’What’s the big deal?’ Enquire others.

Well, the deal is very big indeed. It is an affront to the freedom of the press that the police use legislation (the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act) designed to combat terrorism and organised crime to trawl through contact numbers and hack phone calls to worm out a source that a judge ordered should be protected. Sensibly, Keith Vaz, chairman of the Home Affairs Select committee is equally outraged and will investigate. Keith is nobody’s fool. He knows when to smell a rat and will run it to ground.

But do the general public care? Probably not. We live in an age where we imagine a paedophile on every corner and a terrorist in every mosque. But they should be very worried indeed. An election is looming. Politicians throw common sense to the wind and surf on a tsunami of hyperbole. And it will get worse as the polls narrow and the parties become more panicked and jittery. And desperate.

Theresa May is a great Home Secretary and a shrewd politician who deserves credit for keeping us safe. She has deservedly become a Big Beast. But I do worry about the the resurrection of the Data and Communications Bill dubbed the snoopers charter. We are told that it is vital for national security that our guardians are able collect all of our emails, our texts, our phone calls and our web browsing. They won’t be able to use them, of course, unless a judge rules that they should be. Nothing to worry about then.

Well if you believe that you might as well prepare a note for Father Christmas and a carrot for the Easter Bunny. Just look at what has happened to the Mail on Sunday. Just look at the actions of some local authorities who have used anti terrorist legislation to spy on those wicked parents who may have told a few porkies about where they live to get their kids into a better school. Hardly matters of national security and these abuses were not by the shadowy figures who run our security services.

The Mail on Sunday hacking story should send alarm bells ringing for anyone who believes that our love of freedom and democracy gives us the moral high ground over those who are dedicated to destroying our way of life. I hope a few other papers pick it up tomorrow.

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If only Cameron could tell the Rampton Wing of the Tory party to fuck off and join UKIP

1 Oct 2014 at 08:39

Why anybody wants to be leader of a party, let alone Prime Minister is beyond my comprehension. Your private life is subjected to an unhealthy scrutiny by a carnivorous and mischievous media. You have to react immediately to a crisis with an instant and popular plan. You are obliged come up with vote winning policies which will please all the wings of your party. And whatever you say, do, or even think, you will either be accused of dithering, being too weak or too strident. You are out of touch, in touch, man of the people and devoid of reality all at once. There are those who hate you because you haven’t promoted them. Those who despise you because to sacked them and those who harbour grudges because of some perceived slight years ago.

But the worst part of the job must be having a quiet chat with a Cabinet colleague whom you know is whispering vitriol into the ears of the press and would dance on your political grave. So you realise that you can’t trust most of your Cabinet and surround yourself with a few close friends who would lay down their lives for you. This is denounced as a Chumocracy and those who wouldn’t piss on you if you were on fire resent the fact that they are not included in your inner circle. And when you hold your nose and wine, dine and listen attentively to the cranks, greasers and chancers who infect your party, rather than be thanked and given a little credit for having to put up with their ghastliness you are accused of being patronising.

So today David Cameron will try and unite the warring tribes that make up the Conservative Party. Whatever, he says he will either be accused of lurching to the right, pandering to the Kippers or not being robust enough on the EU. But nothing he says or does will satisfy the Rampton Wing of the Tory party. John Major once said that it was like feeding crocodiles. You throw them a bun and they still slither in the swamps demanding more. These people are a lost cause. They don’t represent the majority of decent people who swell the ranks of the party. Today Cameron must talk to the nation not to his party. He must not make the mistake of Miliband whipping up cheap applause from the converted. He should speak to those having their tea who are worried about jobs, security, their children’s education and whether their parents will be treated with dignity and compassion in their final years. That should be his audience.

I wouldn’t have David Cameron’s job if you paid me a kings ransom. As he looks round his audience this afternoon I wish he could say to those Cabinet Ministers who brief against him, those backbenchers who despise him and those fickle donors desperate for gongs, influence and prestige, ‘and as for you lot why don’t you just fuck off and join UKIP. Be gone and good bloody riddance’. There would be an outcry. Owen Patterson, Chris Grayling and Iain Duncan Smith would go into meltdown. But the Tory Party would return to being the decent, caring, competent Party that used to win elections.

David Cameron is a great Prime Minister who wants to do ‘the right thing’. His instincts are right. He could win the next election if only his party would let him. Whether they have the collective good sense to unite against the real enemy is something that delights Ed Miliband and terrifies me.

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Self Control is always more satisfying than premature ejockulation. Time for a Royal Commission to look at the collective whinges of the UK

19 Sep 2014 at 06:36

Well, they think it’s all over; but it has just began. All party leaders have been damaged by this. Cameron is accused by the usual suspects of selling out England. Miliband of being as of much use as a cat flap in a submarine. And Salmond of conducting one of the most bad tempered and dishonest political campaigns in living memory. Only one politician crawls out of this cess pit with an enhanced reputation and that is Gordon Brown. I wish he could have been as magnificent, passionate and compelling when he was Prime Minister. The saving of the Union will be his footnote in history. And he deserves it.

But now we have to pick up the pieces. For Cameron it will be easier than Miliband whose ratings in Scotland are even lower than they are down south. There will be anger and despair that the working class vote are now deserting to the SNP. There is nothing new in this since Socialism was killed off by new Labour. But yesterday’s vote merely rubbed salt into the wound. And a new enemy was born. Not the Tories. Not the English. But that evil and mythical beast called Westminster. Westminster has caused the poverty. Westminster has wrecked the health service. Westminster is a poison that is causing the great democratic deficit that the public feel so bitter about. Listening to Salmond you could be forgiven for forgetting that he has been running Scotland for the last seven years. He has successfully created a new windmill to tilt at. But now he is at risk. The SNP adopted an iron discipline during the campaign because they thought that they were going to win. Their conference is in November. There will be one question. Is he a lame duck First Minister or a dead one?

So what is meant by the democratic deficit? I suspect that it means that some parts of the UK are better able to screw more money out of the Treasury than others. The total hypocrisy of the Lederhosen Wing of the Tory Party has amazed even me. Are they really telling us that they have just heard of the Barnett formula of redistribution of taxpayers’s money on the basis of population? The little dears have been voting in favour of it since the 1970s. The formula was no more than a clever bribe to the nationalist parties to prop up Calaghan’s minority government fiasco. It didn’t work as they predictably stabbed him in the back. Even Joel Barenett thinks that his formula Is outdated.
And Devo Max than Cameron is accused of writing on the back of a fag packet has been knocking around for years.

The sad truth is that there are a myriad of pockets of disgruntlement spread across the UK. Just about every community one hundred miles from Westminster feels that it is not getting their fare share of the cake. How on earth do we satisfy them all? The sad truth is that we can’t. The old chestnut of an English Parliament is a wonderfully warm and fuzzy idea, but that is as far as it goes. A family in Cornwall doesn’t stand shoulder to shoulder with a family in Sunderland in terms of sharing the same problems.

And it is just another talking shop, another expensive tier of bureaucracy. If politicians are the problem why create more of them? And don’t we have an English Parliament already? Out of 650 MPs only 118 aren’t English.

My only criticism of Gordon Brown is that he promised a Command Paper and legislation to deal with Devo Max by January (and there is still no agreement as what this really means). Rushed legislation is usually bad legislation. The most sensible solution is a Royal Commission. This will take time but it must address the collective whines of the UK as a whole. Self control is always more satisfying than premature ejockulation.

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Who will speak up for the raving bonkers?

17 Sep 2014 at 11:55

These are joyous times for all Cameron haters. Andrew Rosindell, Graham Brady and that towering interlectual that is Owen Patterson must be creaming in their cavalry twills. Tomorrow is their big day because whatever the result that wicked, stuck up wealthy toff and his chums are to blame!! If it’s a YES Cameron must do the honourable thing and resign. He should have told that slimy little Jocko Salmond to shove his referendum up his kilt. If it’s a NO Cameron must do the honourable thing and resign. Those bloody layabout obese, Scots with their disgusting smoking, drinking and eating habits are costing the hardworking English taxpayers a small fortune. This is a national disgrace. The good, struggling people of Clacton are fed up with the Scots eating into their hard earned savings. Enough is enough. That Bastard Cameron after selling us out to the garlic reeking scum of Brussels is now filling the ungrateful Scot sporran with gold. Our gold. Will nobody speak up for England? Why can’t we have our own Parliament and tell Johnny Foreigner to scuttle back though the tunnel. And don’t talk to me about the Welsh. Come to think of it that channel tunnel is a disgrace. We are an island nation. We should never have built the damn thing in the first place. Poor Maggie was forced to agree to it by the Foreign Office, the French and traitors like Clark and Heseltine. Any sensible Englishman would brick it up. Will nobody speak up for the raving bonkers? That Cameron should do the honourable thing and resign. If only Enoch was alive today.

Whatever the result tomorrow certain Tories will be frothing at the mouth, biting the carpet and blaming Cameron. If they had any sense they would carefully contemplate where the real blame lays. And it’s not the Tories. Labour has treated Scotland as it’s personal fiefdom with them as it’s Sepp Blatter. They have been responsible for a sustained scare campaign over the privatisation of the NHS and the destruction of the benefit system. All Salmond has done is exaggerate these false claims even more. Labour is now in the embarrassing position of having to admit that what they have been saying is simply untrue. When the dust has settled and national politics resumes Andy Burnam is going to find himself in a more difficult position than he is now. Miliband has shown him the yellow card already I just wonder how long he can remain in post.

Now what of David Cameron? The right have had a fatwa out on him for so long that I suspect he really doesn’t care anymore. To be honest I am not sure what more he could have done. Tory leaders in Scotland tend to be the kiss of death for any campaign. So he was wise to limit his public involvement and let Labour and the ethnics sort it out. But this has been a bitter and divisive campaign which has opened deep wounds and sectarianism. Whichever side loses is going to cry foul. And if it is going to be as close as many predict the lawyers will have a field day. But what will forever stick in my mind are the beery Nat faces contorted with hatred and rage, shouting down opponents and spitting venom at any journalist who dares question the Dear Leader. These wounds will take a long time to heal.
It will be interesting to see how the Kippers play the English Parliament card. My gut reaction is that they will milk it for all it is worth, particularly in Clacton. It is one of those delightfully attractive concepts which is difficult to argue against until you start measuring the cost and effectiveness of it all. Dear old Redwood is gloriously predictable.

And the West Lothian question? It will never be solved unless the Scots do it for us. So on Friday the United Kingdom will know which of the two outcomes the people have chosen. Will it be disaster or catestrophe ?

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When my family go to Aberdeenshire at Christmas to lay flowers on my father's grave and visit my mother at her care home will we be viewed as Foreigners in a strange land?

14 Sep 2014 at 11:01

For the very first time in all the years that I have been involved in politics I am scared. Scared that on Thursday the good people of Scotland will vote with their hearts rather than their heads. Well, how does it affect we English? Will it be along the lines of the politically illiterate rantings of that great Tory thinker Nadine Dorries of ‘why should be pay for them to eat their deep fried Mars bars’ ? I suspect that these sort of views will be held by a vociferous minority. The majority down south will shrug their shoulders in sorrow rather than anger and as the months roll on will witness Scotland descend from prosperity to a ghetto of unemployment, spiralling debts and failing public services. But it will not just be capital that will be evaporating faster than a snowball in hell, but that amazing pool of talent that has made the Scots one of the most innovative and talented people in the world.

This has been the the most ill tempered political debates that I have ever witnessed. The SNP leadership and their outriders are a deeply unpleasant bunch. The chilling words of former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars about a day of reckoning, although disassociated by the leadership, lifts the veil over the dark reality of Salmond and his cronies; they are very, very left wing and vindictive. To see the delightfully reasonable Jim Murphy being shouted down on the stump as a traitor, a paedophile and every other revolting insult they could muster was troubling. The nationalist agit prop have cast a dark stain over this debate which will be remembered for years.

It is not worth rehearsing the arguments of the the improbability of Scotland keeping the pound, joining the EU and NATO. Nor the flight of capital, jobs and aspiration. Does Scotland really want to be transformed into an intolerant Socialist state, where there will be hardly any rich left to make their pips squeak? If so fire up the Quattro now and send for President Hollande. Or maybe they could be a client state of Russia.

What saddens me is that when my family visit Aberdeenshire this Christmas to put flowers on my father’s grave and visit my mother in her care home will be be foreigners in a strange land?

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Is Boris the next Enoch Powell?

13 Sep 2014 at 09:14

I am beginning to wonder whether Boris Johnson will be the next Enoch Powell. A distinguished classicist, self publicist and boat rocking irritant. Both were disillusioned with their parties, both were dangerously unpredictable and had leadership ambitions. To be fair to Powell he at least was consistent even if dangerously wrong about so many things and even more dangerously consistent and right about everything else. Powell was a loner. So is Boris. Powell used to send shivers of dread down the spines of party leaders at election time. What will he say? What will he do? So does Boris. And when canvassing, the party faithful in 1974 would be treated with the usual refrain of ’ I agree with every word that that Mr.Powell says.’ Boris hasn’t quite got there yet, but he might.

But that’s where the comparison probably ends. Powell was an intellectual, a deep thinker who could dazzle his opponents with crystal towers of logic. We knew what he believed. We knew where he stood. You got what was written on the tin. We know what is written on the Boris tin, ‘I want to be Prime Minister.’ But what is actually in it? I haven’t a clue. And I doubt whether he does either.

So here is his problem. Boris wants to replace the man who his enemies believe is a slick PR man, stands for nothing and has departed from the true Tory path. And Boris? I am not entirely sure which path he follows at all apart from the garden variety of which he consistently and elegantly leads us up. On Europe he started off as rather pro until he realised he could impress his editor with some delightfully amusing but very flaky anti EU copy. And a true Tory (whatever that is)? Mmm, from a man who nearly joined the SDP? So the crude difference between Cameron and him is that one is a pragmatist the other an opportunist. Although to be fair, in politics there is absolutely no shame about the latter as long as it is practised in moderation. Not perhaps a Johnsonian trait.

Well, we’ve got him now, how do we best utilise him? General elections like any good ballet have to be meticulously choreographed. And the Tory Chef de ballet is that old bruiser Lynton Crosby, who must pondering how on earth to keep Bozza reasonably on message and not trapped into divisive quotes apart from hallucinogenic drugs or physical restraint. I suspect it will be a lot easier than we think. Firstly, it is not in Boris’s interests for Cameron to lose the election. The hard, demeaning, hopeless job of being Leader of the Opposition doesn’t fit his psyche. The best chance of becoming leader is one of two options. Option one; the figures are so tight that another coalition is inevitable which is scuppered by Tory backbenchers and Cameron is forced out Boris takes over and fights an election. But that is not as easy as it seems. Nowadays Tory backbenchers don’t chose the leader, there has to be a vote by members of the party. This takes time and if the Queen is waiting to appoint a government she will not want to be hanging about for a couple of months whilst the Tories are sorting themselves out. And a coronation will not be tolerated by Osborne or May.
Option two; Cameron loses the referendum on the EU and resigns. This is Boris’s best chance.

So if he wants to be leader he must at least pretend to be loyal simply because it is in his interests that Cameron wins the election with an outright majority.

And after recovering from the heady glow of being selected for Uxbridge (I wonder if he thought that it was Oxbridge?) the first thing he should do is take the Boris circus down to Clacton and knock nine bells out of the KIPPERS. And this is where he is most useful; the destruction of Farage. He can out Heineken him any day.

So Boris the politician who pretends he isn’t, might well be the Nemesis of Farage the politician who pretends he isn’t. What a funny old world we live in. But fun.

Oh, and just in case you have forgotten Enoch Powell, despite all the hype, never led his party.

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Why is it that Tory backbenchers can be led to slaughter but never made to think?

7 Sep 2014 at 15:21

If I was Michael Gove, the Chief Whip, I would summon four people to my office on Monday morning. Jacob Rees Mogg, Adam Afriyie, Andrew Brigden and Jackie Doyle Price. The first three I would accuse of craven, snivelling cowardice and rip them each a new arsehole for their crass stupidity and total disloyalty. I would then give them a stark choice. Either drop this damaging lunacy or fuck off to UKIP and expect extermination at the general election. Discipline has to be restored and Gove is the man to do it. Of course, they will squeal and moan to the press about how hard done by they are and that nobody listens to them. But there is a damn good reason for that. They have divided the Tory right and are destroying any chance of a Tory victory.

And Jackie? I would go down on one knee, shake her by the hand and thank her for her courage and common sense. I would also make sure that somehow she was rewarded. Jackie is a feisty little fighter. She has a majority of just 92 and her seat of Thurrock is a breeding ground for the Kippers. Does she moan? Does she panic? Does she want to do a deal with these ghastly people. No bloody fear. She fights them. She takes them head on. And if there is any justice in this world she will win. In politics the easy option is rarely the best. Do Mogg, (maj 3,000) Brigden (maj 7,500) or Afriyie (maj 19,000) give a toss about her? Of course not. If she’ll have me I would be proud to campaign for her as I spent my formative years in Grays. And I like a fighter.

Let’s look at the mechanics of all of this. At the next election UKIP will probably poll about 10%. They will not win Clacton and may not have a single seat. Two cabinet posts? Farage as DPM? It is politically illiterate.

And then what would be the deal? Farage, would get to nominate who the leader of the Tory Party will be, or rather who it won’t be. He will demand a referendum before the election and further demand that the Conservative Party campaign for an exit. Considering the opinion polls consistently show that the EU doesn’t appear within the top ten of people’s concerns this borders on the Psychotic.

Mogg, Afriyie, and Brigden are not stupid men. Far from it. And personally I like them. But judging form this recent act of self immolation in calling for a deal with UKIP and offering Farage two cabinet seats they are in need of medication and put into a place of safety. The kippers are not part of the Tory family and never have been. They make the Adams family look remarkably normal. Just because a number of Conservatives have crossed over to the dark side it doesn’t mean we want to welcome them back on their terms. Conservatism is about tolerance and fair play. UKIP is BNP lite mood music. It is loud and deeply unpleasant. And resonates with the sort of people I wouldn’t particularly want as next door neighbours.

Ken Clarke once said that the reason the Tories kept losing elections was because they were obsessed with placating 30% of the electorate. Now some want to narrow this to 10%. It is almost beyond belief.

There are two winners here. Miliband and Farage. Farage wants him to win so the Tory party is split and the right join his happy little dysfunctional family. He wants to destroy the Conservative Party. We mustn’t help him.

Why is it that Tory backbenchers can be led to slaughter but never made to think?

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It is time that decent Conservatives and those who believe in social democracy stand up and fight those parasites who are infecting our party

31 Aug 2014 at 10:31

Is Mathew Parris the only sensible commentator to appreciate that Douglas Carswell is a complete and utter fraud? For weeks he has been exasperating Eurosceptics by refusing to rebel and for going on record as saying that Cameron’s European stance was one hundred percent correct. He even gave a lengthy interview to the Spectator’s splendid Fraser Nelson saying at length why he could not join UKIP.

So what has caused this volcanic volte face? What, apart from hardening his position on Europe has Cameron actually done to turn Carswell so violently against him? The answer is absolutely nothing. This act of treacherous vanity must have been bubbling away on the back burner for years. Carswell is not the great knight in shining armour selflessly sacrificing his career on the altar of greater Parliamentary democracy. His motivation is purely selfish. If he had sat down with all the other serious Cameron haters and worked out a strategy to damage him and his party they couldn’t have had come up with anything more toxic. And more helpful of putting Miliband into Number 10.

And this is the dilemma that confronts the Cameron haters. Do they loathe him so much that any chance of a Tory victory at the election is shattered in a poisonous explosion of bile? Do they despise him so much that any hope of a referendum on the EU are dashed? The alarming answer to these questions appears to be yes. In same dark and dangerous parts of the Tory back benches the hatred of Cameron borders on a psychiatric disorder. But there is a strict apartheid. Those willing to press the self destruct button and destroy all the economic success that the hardworking people of this country have sweated blood for are in the fortuitous position of having safe seats. If these obsessives have their way they will throw onto the scrap heap a goodly number of thoroughly decent colleagues in marginal seats. They don’t give a damn about them. A wicked betrayal.

But we are told that the likes of Carswell are men and women of great principle, fearlessly fighting for our rights. For, God’s sake please pause while I am violently sick. We are told that they are Libertarians. Well, up to a point. Provided you don’t have the effrontery to want to marry the person that you love.

And now there are mutterings by some Tories that they could not possibly campaign against him as he is a true Conservative. What bollocks. Carswell and his type may have jumped into a lifeboat marked ‘Conservative’ to get elected in the first place. He is as much a Conservative as I am a Muslim.

So Clacton is a chance for everyone who really cares about this country, every decent Conservative and those who believe in social democracy to fight the squalid self interested hypocrisy of UKIP and Carswell. I will be there at the first whiff of political cordite.

Many of us are fed up with our party being infected by these dreadful people. And some of us will fight.

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